With the election set to be held on the 5th of May, there’s only 7 days to go until the new Scottish parliament at Holyrood is decided. With campaigning now in full swing, candidates have battled it out on issues including healthcare provision and job security. But who is winning?
According to opinion polls, the Scottish National Party has remainedthe dominant force in the election. Data compiled by Ipsos MORI and the STV shows that 45% of respondents claimed they were most inclined to support the SNP in the 2016 election. Hence, the SNP looks poised to win big on May 5th, with a 26% lead over all of its opposition, despite a fall in support for the party since polls began in January.
Interestingly, opinion polls reveal that the Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives are nearly equal in popularity, with opinion polls contradicting one another regarding who is in the lead. Ipsos MORI records that the Scottish Conservatives are in the lead, with 19% of the perceived vote as opposed to Labour’s 17%. Yet, TNS records that it is in fact Scottish Labour in the lead, with 22% of respondents supporting the party and only 18% of respondents inclined to vote for the Scottish Conservatives.
The remaining votes are split between the Scottish Greens with 10%, the Scottish Liberal Democrats with 7%, UKIP with 1% and the rest of the votes being shared between parties with less than 1%.
Moreover, turnout for the Holyrood election seems to be far greater than it was in the last election in 2011. 67% of the Scottish vote-able population are forecast to be voting, as opposed to the much lower 50% turnout in the last Holyrood election.
With one week to go, it looks like the 2016 Holyrood election will be a landslide victory for the SNP. Yet, less is certain regarding the battle between Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives, who seem to be neck-and-neck, with polls disagreeing on which party is in the lead at any given time. This uncertainty is sure to provide some exciting results on May 5th.
Image credit: firstministerofscotland