Image credit: the-open-university

Poll suggests Brexit is losing ground

A recent Opinium/Observer poll shows 48% of Tory voters want to stay in the European Union which is now upfrom 39%. This leaves the campaign for Britain to stay in the EU now with a four-point overall lead. It seems to be specifically David Cameron’s contribution to the campaign which has Tory voters switching their allegiance.

Adam Drummond, of Opinium Research, said the change could simply be caused by pro-Brexit Tories now switching allegiance to UKIP and in turn causing the proportion of pro-Brexit Tories to drop.

Nigel Farage, however, believes that a third of Tory voters could defect to UKIP should there be a narrow victory for the campaign for Britain to stay.

Mr Farage said, “…[t]he doomsday scenario for these guys is that we lose the referendum 52/48, that I’m seen to have played a big role in the referendum…” He also believed that this could be followed up by a realignment of politics on the right.

Is Brexit beginning to fall at the last hurdle?

The waters are very much muddied and as such it is hard to tell where the momentum sits at this present moment. The survey results above only show the Tory voters who were surveyed but it has been well documented that there is left wing support for Brexit and an historic base of anti-EU feeling on the left.

It is undeniably clear, though, that the EU referendum is in itself two things: (1) a de facto Tory leadership battle and (2) an attempt to prevent a haemorrhaging of support to UKIP.

The messages of a complete catastrophe following Brexit are resoundingly similar to the messages which were present during the Scottish Independence Referendum campaign – the NHS and economy being some of the main targets.

Cultural impacts and migration are more at the forefront of people’s minds when it comes to this referendum – economic arguments and predictions will not be the deciding factor.

Image credit: the-open-university

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Noah Brown

Name: Noah Surname: Brown City: Tweedsmuir Education: MA (Hons) Celtic at the University of Edinburgh Career Aspirations: Anything which challenges me How: Follow your nose and your heart Date of birth: 04.02.96 Email:

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